HSE University Researchers Investigate Why Many Russians Oppose Vaccination

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Despite the risks associated with COVID-19 infection, many Russians either refuse to get vaccinated or are uncertain and hesitant about the practice. The factors behind these views are the subject of research by Yana Roshchina, Leading Research Fellow of the HSE University Centre for Longitudinal Studies and Senior Research Fellow of the Laboratory for Studies in Economic Sociology (LSES); Sergey Roshchin, Head of the Laboratory for Labour Market Studies (LLMS) and HSE University Vice Rector; and Ksenia Rozhkova, Junior Research Fellow at LLMS. The results of the study were presented at an LSES seminar.

Anti-vaccine views emerged long before the appearance of vaccines against COVID-19, observes Yana Roshchina. The publication of research in 1998 linking the MMR vaccine to the development of autism in children is regarded as a turning point for the movement. Despite the fact that the research was later found to have been falsified, anti-vax views have remained ever since.

Yana Roshchina, Leading Research Fellow of the HSE University Centre for Longitudinal Studies and Senior Research Fellow of the Laboratory for Studies in Economic Sociology (LSES)

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the focus of anti-vaccine protests has shifted from children to adults. A wealth of empirical research has been published in various countries about the factors that influence anti-vaccine views in relation to COVID-19. However, previously published articles have relied on survey data for Russia collected as part of an international study conducted in summer 2020. The new research is the first to use representative data, which provides the researchers with a strong basis for their conclusions.

The authors of the research analyze the factors underlying people’s unwillingness to get vaccinated or their doubts about its necessity. The study uses data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS-HSE) collected between October 2020 and January 2021—before the rollout of mass vaccinations. The respondents of the survey were asked about their intentions to get vaccinated when the opportunity became available (the survey was conducted during a period in which very few people had been vaccinated, and those only as part of trials).

Of those surveyed, 8% said that they would definitely get vaccinated, 36% would only do so once they were sure it was safe and reliable, 42% would not get vaccinated, 13% were uncertain, and 1% had already recovered from COVID-19 infection and believed that they did not need to get vaccinated. The high level of vaccine scepticism even before the mass rollout of vaccinations may explain the subsequent low levels of vaccine uptake. However, it is unknown why people had such negative attitudes as early as autumn 2020.

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It emerged that the chances of someone refusing to get vaccinated (compared to people who were conditionally in favour, ie, those who were willing to get vaccinated as long as they were sure of its safety and reliability) were lower in people with elderly family members, those with higher or intermediate-level professional education, and those living outside Moscow and St. Petersburg. Similarly, the chances of someone doubting the necessity of vaccinations were lower (compared to those who were conditionally in favour) among those with family members under the age of 18, those with higher education, students, and those living outside Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Compared to conditional acceptance of vaccines, refusal to get vaccinated is associated with a higher prevalence of traits such as conformity, neuroticism, risk-prone behaviour, and religious inclinations. Vaccine scepticism correlates with high levels of scrupulousness and neuroticism, while unconditional acceptance of vaccines is higher in people with high levels of conformity and extraversion, as well as in those who do not attend religious events.

The researchers found that people with high levels of overall trust were more inclined to support vaccines, while those who spend a lot of time on social media are more likely to oppose them. One of the key factors behind approval of vaccination is trust not only in other people, but in state institutions. Yana Roshchina believes that this may partially explain the low level of vaccination among Russians.

Regarding what needs to be done to encourage Russians to get vaccinated, the researchers outline several risk groups unlikely to support vaccination: people with either very poor or very good health, those prone to risky behaviour but who believe it unlikely that they will contract COVID-19 within the next year, and those living in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Focusing on these groups and developing various methods to convince them of the need for vaccination would likely prove effective. One long-term measure is to improve people’s trust in state institutions overall. ‘I don’t know how realistic that is, but that’s what we saw in the research,’ said Yana Roshchina.

Judith Shapiro, Senior Lecturer in Practice of the Department of Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science

The discussion of the report featured the participation of Dr. Judith Shapiro, Senior Lecturer in Practice of the Department of Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and Darya Lebedeva, Research Assistant at LSES.

Dr. Shapiro noted that people’s uncertainty towards new vaccines is understandable—even rational—and that it is crucial to find a solution to the problem of vaccine refusal at the global or national level.

Darya Lebedeva noted that one of the strengths of the research is its inclusion of predictors behind vaccine refusal and scepticism. The list of these factors is sizeable, and Ms. Lebedeva believes that the manner of their selection is interesting. She proposed expanding the list of external factors to include those related to trust in political institutions and the nuances of the rhetoric surrounding COVID-19 and vaccination. This is due to the fact that the promotion of Sputnik V and other Russian vaccines pitted them in opposition to their western counterparts, which likely influenced attitudes towards vaccination.

Sergey Roshchin, Head of the Laboratory for Labour Market Studies (LLMS) and HSE University Vice Rector

Outlining the focus of the study, Sergey Roshchin explained that factors are assessed at the individual level, categorizing people by their attitudes towards vaccination. It is also important to note that the research was conducted six months after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but before the mass rollout of vaccinations. This allowed the researchers to asses people’s fundamental views largely before the emergence of specific vaccines and methods of promoting them. When examining people’s behaviour in terms of their attitudes towards vaccination, it is possible to work with respondents’ locations and various types of individuals. With the situation continuing to develop and new data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey emerging for 2021, the research will continue.

During the discussion, HSE University tenured professor Leonid Kosals highlighted the higher levels of vaccine refusal in Moscow and St. Petersburg—despite the cities seemingly being home to a more forward-thinking and modernized section of society. This is largely an indicator of attitudes not only towards medical procedures, but also a general indicator of modern vs. traditional attitudes. Professor Kosals believes that this requires explanation. The research presented does not examine this issue in sufficient detail, and it is worthy of further study in the future.

Senior Research Fellow of the Laboratory for Studies in Economic Sociology Elena Berdysheva noted the importance of the concept of ‘conditional acceptance’ of vaccination, and also drew attention to the necessity of targeted communication in promoting vaccination, as confirmed in the research data. LSES Senior Research Fellow Olga Kuzina underlined the importance of the influence of trust on willingness to get vaccinated and proposed research into the relationships between attitudes among different members of the same family.

Vadim Radaev, HSE University First Vice Rector and Head of LSES

Vadim Radaev, HSE University First Vice Rector and Head of LSES, said that the research is interesting and that its results appear to be credible. He drew particular attention to one surprising fact: according to the data obtained, people’s attitudes towards vaccination do not seem to be influenced by whether or not they have had COVID previously. However, this may be due to the fact that the research uses data from autumn 2020, when a smaller proportion of the population had contracted COVID.

Vadim Radaev also noted that while Russia is sometimes seen as a narrow-minded country (and correspondingly one with a high percentage of anti-vaxxers), consistently large numbers of anti-vaxxers can also be found in the US and in European countries. This gives rise to social movements that are to some degree linked to people’s desire to assert their civil rights. As such, there is much about the issue that remains unexplored, and there is a wide scope for further research.